Highly competitive
10 seats · 4 tight
Srikakulam
NDA46.4%YSRCP43.1%Seats9–1
Closest: Rajam (under 1 pt)
VoterIQ survey · Aug–Sep 2026
Mood of Andhra Pradesh
Vote share, seat projections and a constituency-level outlook for all 175 Assembly seats.
1.2 lakhVoters reached
175Constituencies covered
13Districts analysed
±1%Margin of error, 95%
01 / Key insights
What the numbers mean for Andhra Pradesh.
Ten findings from the published study, in the order they appear in the report.
- 01
The NDA stays in power, with a much thinner cushion
TDP, JSP and BJP together are projected to win 110 seats (107–113), 22 above the majority mark of 88. Their vote lead, though, is just 1.5 points: 45.5% against 44.0%.
- 02
YSRCP has recovered strongly since 2024
YSRCP’s vote intention stands at 44.0%, up from 39.38% in 2024, and its projected seats rise from 11 to 62–68. The NDA, which polled 55.30% and won 164 seats, is down to 45.5%.
- 03
The undecided hold the key
6% of voters are still undecided, four times the statewide lead. Where they land will decide whether the NDA keeps a comfortable majority.
- 04
43 seats are on a knife-edge
43 constituencies have a projected margin under 3 points: 24 with the NDA ahead and 19 with YSRCP ahead. A small swing in either direction redraws the map.
- 05
Rayalaseema has turned back to YSRCP
YSRCP leads in 37 of 52 Rayalaseema seats, including all 10 in Kadapa and 11 of 14 in Kurnool, with a 6-point vote lead across the region.
- 06
The coast and Uttarandhra carry the NDA
The NDA leads in 95 of 123 seats across Uttarandhra and Coastal Andhra: 16 of 17 in Guntur, 16 of 19 in East Godavari, 14 of 16 in Krishna and 9 of 10 in Srikakulam.
- 07
Young voters are firmly with the NDA
The NDA leads among 18–25 year olds by 17.9 points and among 26–35 year olds by 5.7. YSRCP is ahead among voters aged 36–50 (+4.6) and above 50 (+9.3).
- 08
YSRCP’s social base is intact
YSRCP wins 53.3% of SC voters, 51.5% of Muslims and 55.8% of other religious minorities, and leads among STs by 8.1 points. The NDA leads among General (+10.2) and OBC (+3.8) voters.
- 09
Rural Andhra is a dead heat
In rural areas the NDA polls 45.0% and YSRCP 44.5%. The NDA’s edge comes from towns and cities, where it leads by 3.9 points.
- 10
Prakasam and Nellore are the NDA’s coastal weak spots
Prakasam splits 6–6 and YSRCP leads in 6 of Nellore’s 10 seats. The tribal Agency seats of Araku Valley (+28.9) and Paderu (+24.8) remain YSRCP strongholds.
02 / Seat & vote projection
The NDA holds Andhra Pradesh, but the gap has narrowed to 1.5 points.
Vote share and modelled seats are different measures. Both are shown.
NDA projected at 110 of 175 seats
Vote share, 0–100% scale · Seats, modelled rangeNDA (TDP + JSP + BJP)45.5%110 (107–113)
YSRCP44.0%65 (62–68)
Others4.5%–
Undecided6.0%Not allocated
Modelled seats · 175-member Assembly
NDA (TDP + JSP + BJP) · 110 (107–113)YSRCP · 65 (62–68)
White line: majority mark of 88NDA refers to the alliance of TDP, JSP and BJP. The 6% undecided are reported separately and are not allocated to any party in the seat projection.
| Party | Vote share | Seat estimate |
|---|---|---|
| NDA (TDP + JSP + BJP) | 45.5% | 110 (107–113) |
| YSRCP | 44.0% | 65 (62–68) |
| Others | 4.5% | – |
| Undecided | 6.0% | Not allocated |
+22 seats
NDA projection of 110, against the 88 needed for a majority.
43
seats within 3 points: 24 with the NDA ahead, 19 with YSRCP ahead.
4×
the undecided share (6.0%) is four times the statewide lead (1.5 points).
The alliance still holds a working majority, but most of the 2024 wave has receded. With 43 seats inside three points, a small swing in either direction redraws the map.
03 / How the vote has moved
A ten-point fall for the NDA since 2024, and a strong YSRCP recovery.
Survey vote share compared with official results published by the Election Commission of India.
| Party | 2024 vote | 2024 seats | 2026 vote | 2026 seats | Change (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA (TDP + JSP + BJP) | 55.30% | 164 | 45.5% | 107–113 | −9.8 |
| YSRCP | 39.38% | 11 | 44.0% | 62–68 | +4.6 |
| Others | 5.32% | 0 | 4.5% | – | −0.8 |
| Undecided | – | – | 6.0% | – | – |
2024 figures are the official Assembly result (Election Commission of India); 2024 Others include INC, smaller parties, independents and NOTA. 2026 figures are survey vote intention, including 6% undecided.
NDA
From 164 seats to a projected 110. The alliance still holds a working majority, but most of the 2024 wave has receded.
YSRCP
Up 4.6 points on its 2024 vote. That is enough to take its seat count from 11 to a projected 62–68.
04 / Region-wise picture
The NDA sweeps the coast. YSRCP holds the south-west.
Projected leader in each region. Tight seats have a projected margin under 3 points.
| Region | Seats | NDA | YSRCP | Tight | Vote lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uttarandhra | 34 | 27 | 7 | 10 | NDA +4.3 |
| Coastal Andhra | 89 | 68 | 21 | 19 | NDA +4.8 |
| Rayalaseema | 52 | 15 | 37 | 14 | YSRCP +6.0 |
Districts as in use before 2022. Uttarandhra: Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam. Coastal Andhra: East and West Godavari, Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam, Nellore. Rayalaseema: Kadapa, Kurnool, Anantapur, Chittoor.
Rayalaseema
YSRCP leads in 37 of 52 seats, including all 10 in Kadapa and 11 of 14 in Kurnool, with a 6-point vote lead across the region.
The coast and Uttarandhra
The NDA leads in 95 of 123 seats across the two regions, with its strongest margins in East Godavari, Visakhapatnam and Krishna.
05 / District by district
Seats and margins across the 13 districts.
Vote shares are district-level estimates and carry more uncertainty than the statewide figure.
Highly competitive
9 seats · 4 tight
Vizianagaram
NDA45.5%YSRCP44.0%Seats6–3
Closest: Gajapathinagaram (under 1 pt)
Mostly settled
15 seats · 2 tight
Visakhapatnam
NDA48.1%YSRCP41.4%Seats12–3
Closest: Narsipatnam (under 1 pt)
Mostly settled
19 seats · 1 tight
East Godavari
NDA49.6%YSRCP39.9%Seats16–3
Closest: Tuni (2.1 pts)
Mostly settled
15 seats · 3 tight
West Godavari
NDA49.1%YSRCP40.4%Seats12–3
Closest: Chintalapudi (under 1 pt)
Highly competitive
16 seats · 5 tight
Krishna
NDA47.8%YSRCP41.7%Seats14–2
Closest: Tiruvuru (SC) (under 1 pt)
Highly competitive
17 seats · 6 tight
Guntur
NDA47.0%YSRCP42.5%Seats16–1
Closest: Pedakurapadu (under 1 pt)
Mostly settled
12 seats · 3 tight
Prakasam
NDA42.6%YSRCP46.9%Seats6–6
Closest: Kandukur (under 1 pt)
Mostly settled
10 seats · 1 tight
Nellore
NDA44.3%YSRCP45.2%Seats4–6
Closest: Sarvepalli (1.2 pts)
Mostly settled
10 seats · 2 tight
Kadapa
NDA38.2%YSRCP51.3%Seats0–10
Closest: Kamalapuram (1.3 pts)
Highly competitive
14 seats · 5 tight
Kurnool
NDA41.0%YSRCP48.5%Seats3–11
Closest: Panyam (under 1 pt)
Mostly settled
14 seats · 3 tight
Anantapur
NDA43.6%YSRCP45.9%Seats6–8
Closest: Anantapur Urban (under 1 pt)
Highly competitive
14 seats · 4 tight
Chittoor
NDA43.1%YSRCP46.4%Seats6–8
Closest: Chandragiri (under 1 pt)
06 / Who votes for whom
The young lean NDA. Older voters lean YSRCP.
Vote intention by voter profile (%), with the leading side and its margin in points.
NDAYSRCPOthers & undecided
By age group
18–25NDA +17.9
26–35NDA +5.7
36–50YSRCP +4.6
Above 50YSRCP +9.3
Urban and rural
UrbanNDA +3.9
RuralEven
Age
The age divide is the sharpest in the survey. The NDA’s 17.9-point lead among 18–25 year olds turns into a 9.3-point YSRCP lead among voters above 50.
Towns and villages
Rural Andhra is a dead heat. The NDA’s statewide edge comes from towns and cities, where it leads by 3.9 points.
07 / Constituency explorer
Find a constituency.
Projected leader for each of the 175 seats. Margins are shown in bands; exact margins are in the full report.
175 constituencies · NDA ahead in 110, YSRCP ahead in 65
| AC | Constituency | District | Leading | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ichchapuram | Srikakulam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 2 | Palasa | Srikakulam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 3 | Tekkali | Srikakulam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 4 | Pathapatnam | Srikakulam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 5 | Srikakulam | Srikakulam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 6 | Amadalavalasa | Srikakulam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 7 | Etcherla | Srikakulam | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 8 | Narasannapeta | Srikakulam | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 9 | Rajam | Srikakulam | NDA | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 10 | Palakonda | Srikakulam | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 11 | Kurupam | Vizianagaram | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 12 | Parvathipuram | Vizianagaram | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 13 | Salur | Vizianagaram | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 14 | Bobbili | Vizianagaram | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 15 | Cheepurupalle | Vizianagaram | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 16 | Gajapathinagaram | Vizianagaram | NDA | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 17 | Nellimarla | Vizianagaram | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 18 | Vizianagaram | Vizianagaram | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 19 | Srungavarapukota | Vizianagaram | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 20 | Bhimili | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 21 | Visakhapatnam East | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 22 | Visakhapatnam South | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 23 | Visakhapatnam North | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 24 | Visakhapatnam West | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 25 | Gajuwaka | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 26 | Chodavaram | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 27 | Madugula | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 28 | Araku Valley | Visakhapatnam | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 29 | Paderu | Visakhapatnam | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 30 | Anakapalle | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 31 | Pendurthi | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 32 | Yelamanchili | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 33 | Payakaraopet | Visakhapatnam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 34 | Narsipatnam | Visakhapatnam | YSRCP | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 35 | Tuni | East Godavari | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 36 | Prathipadu | East Godavari | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 37 | Pithapuram | East Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 38 | Kakinada Rural | East Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 39 | Peddapuram | East Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 40 | Anaparthy | East Godavari | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 41 | Kakinada City | East Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 42 | Ramachandrapuram | East Godavari | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 43 | Mummidivaram | East Godavari | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 44 | Amalapuram | East Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 45 | Razole | East Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 46 | Gannavaram(SC) | East Godavari | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 47 | Kothapeta | East Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 48 | Mandapeta | East Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 49 | Rajanagaram | East Godavari | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 50 | Rajahmundry City | East Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 51 | Rajahmundry Rural | East Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 52 | Jaggampeta | East Godavari | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 53 | Rampachodavaram | East Godavari | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 54 | Kovvur | West Godavari | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 55 | Nidadavole | West Godavari | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 56 | Achanta | West Godavari | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 57 | Palacole | West Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 58 | Narasapuram | West Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 59 | Bhimavaram | West Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 60 | Undi | West Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 61 | Tanuku | West Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 62 | Tadepalligudem | West Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 63 | Ungutur | West Godavari | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 64 | Denduluru | West Godavari | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 65 | Eluru | West Godavari | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 66 | Gopalapuram | West Godavari | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 67 | Polavaram | West Godavari | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 68 | Chintalapudi | West Godavari | YSRCP | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 69 | Tiruvuru (SC) | Krishna | NDA | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 70 | Nuzvid | Krishna | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 71 | Gannavaram | Krishna | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 72 | Gudivada | Krishna | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 73 | Kaikalur | Krishna | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 74 | Pedana | Krishna | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 75 | Machilipatnam | Krishna | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 76 | Avanigadda | Krishna | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 77 | Pamarru (SC) | Krishna | YSRCP | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 78 | Penamaluru | Krishna | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 79 | Vijayawada West | Krishna | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 80 | Vijayawada Central | Krishna | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 81 | Vijayawada East | Krishna | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 82 | Mylavaram | Krishna | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 83 | Nandigama (SC) | Krishna | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 84 | Jaggayyapeta | Krishna | NDA | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 85 | Pedakurapadu | Guntur | NDA | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 86 | Tadikonda (SC) | Guntur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 87 | Mangalagiri | Guntur | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 88 | Ponnur | Guntur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 89 | Vemuru (SC) | Guntur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 90 | Repalle | Guntur | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 91 | Tenali | Guntur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 92 | Bapatla | Guntur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 93 | Prathipadu (SC) | Guntur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 94 | Guntur West | Guntur | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 95 | Guntur East | Guntur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 96 | Chilakaluripet | Guntur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 97 | Narasaraopet | Guntur | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 98 | Sattenapalle | Guntur | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 99 | Vinukonda | Guntur | NDA | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 100 | Gurajala | Guntur | NDA | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 101 | Macherla | Guntur | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 102 | Yerragondapalem (SC) | Prakasam | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 103 | Darsi | Prakasam | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 104 | Parchur | Prakasam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 105 | Addanki | Prakasam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 106 | Chirala | Prakasam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 107 | Santhanuthalapadu (SC) | Prakasam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 108 | Ongole | Prakasam | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 109 | Kandukur | Prakasam | YSRCP | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 110 | Kondapi (SC) | Prakasam | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 111 | Markapuram | Prakasam | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 112 | Giddalur | Prakasam | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 113 | Kanigiri | Prakasam | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 114 | Kavali | Nellore | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 115 | Atmakur | Nellore | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 116 | Kovur | Nellore | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 117 | Nellore City | Nellore | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 118 | Nellore Rural | Nellore | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 119 | Sarvepalli | Nellore | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 120 | Gudur | Nellore | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 121 | Sullurpeta | Nellore | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 122 | Venkatagiri | Nellore | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 123 | Udayagiri | Nellore | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 124 | Badvel | Kadapa | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 125 | Rajampet | Kadapa | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 126 | Kadapa | Kadapa | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 127 | Kodur (SC) | Kadapa | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 128 | Rayachoti | Kadapa | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 129 | Pulivendla | Kadapa | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 130 | Kamalapuram | Kadapa | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 131 | Jammalamadugu | Kadapa | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 132 | Proddatur | Kadapa | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 133 | Mydukur | Kadapa | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 134 | Allagadda | Kurnool | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 135 | Srisailam | Kurnool | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 136 | Nandikotkur (SC) | Kurnool | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 137 | Kurnool | Kurnool | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 138 | Panyam | Kurnool | YSRCP | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 139 | Nandyal | Kurnool | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 140 | Banaganapalle | Kurnool | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 141 | Dhone | Kurnool | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 142 | Pattikonda | Kurnool | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 143 | Kodumur (SC) | Kurnool | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 144 | Yemmiganur | Kurnool | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 145 | Mantralayam | Kurnool | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 146 | Adoni | Kurnool | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 147 | Alur | Kurnool | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 148 | Rayadurg | Anantapur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 149 | Uravakonda | Anantapur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 150 | Guntakal | Anantapur | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 151 | Tadpatri | Anantapur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 152 | Singanamala (SC) | Anantapur | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 153 | Anantapur Urban | Anantapur | YSRCP | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 154 | Kalyandurg | Anantapur | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 155 | Raptadu | Anantapur | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 156 | Madakasira (SC) | Anantapur | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 157 | Hindupur | Anantapur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 158 | Penukonda | Anantapur | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 159 | Puttaparthi | Anantapur | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 160 | Dharmavaram | Anantapur | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 161 | Kadiri | Anantapur | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 162 | Thamballapalle | Chittoor | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 163 | Pileru | Chittoor | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 164 | Madanapalle | Chittoor | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 165 | Punganur | Chittoor | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 166 | Chandragiri | Chittoor | NDA | Under 1 pt · tight |
| 167 | Tirupati | Chittoor | NDA | 10+ pts |
| 168 | Srikalahasti | Chittoor | NDA | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 169 | Satyavedu | Chittoor | YSRCP | 10+ pts |
| 170 | Nagari | Chittoor | NDA | 3–10 pts |
| 171 | Gangadhara Nellore (SC) | Chittoor | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 172 | Chittoor | Chittoor | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 173 | Puthalapattu (SC) | Chittoor | YSRCP | 3–10 pts |
| 174 | Palamaner | Chittoor | YSRCP | 1–3 pts · tight |
| 175 | Kuppam | Chittoor | NDA | 10+ pts |
08 / Methodology
About this survey.
Reproduced from the published report.
SurveyPragya Strategies VoterIQ Survey, Andhra Pradesh
FieldworkAugust – September 2026
Voters reached1.2 lakh
Margin of error±1% at the state level, at 95% confidence
CoverageAll 175 Assembly constituencies, reported by the 13 districts in use before 2022 and three regions
Data collectionCaptured and validated on Pragya’s VoterIQ survey platform
Seat projectionConstituency-level modelling based on survey findings, recent electoral results and historical constituency patterns
Undecided votersReported separately and not allocated to any party; projected leads reflect declared vote intention
Tight seatsConstituencies with a projected margin under 3 percentage points
Comparisons2024 Assembly results, Election Commission of India
Notes for readers
The NDA refers to the alliance of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Jana Sena Party (JSP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). District, demographic and constituency-level estimates carry higher uncertainty than statewide estimates.
Disclaimer
This survey is a snapshot of voter opinion at the time of fieldwork. It is not a prediction of the final result of any election, which will depend on candidates, alliances and campaigns that are yet to take shape. Pragya Strategies is an independent political consultancy.
Full report · 16 pages · Free
Read the complete study.
—Exact projected margins for all 175 constituencies—Constituency map and district-by-district seat grids—Voter profiles by social category and religion—All 43 tight seats, ranked closest first
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Source: Pragya Strategies – VoterIQ Survey, Andhra Pradesh, Aug–Sep 2026