VoterIQ survey · Aug–Sep 2026
Mood of Karnataka
Vote share, seat projections and the public mood across Karnataka, ahead of the 2028 Assembly election.
01 / Key insights
What the numbers mean for 2028.
Ten findings from the published study, in the order they appear in the report.
- 01
Only a BJP–JD(S) alliance can unseat Congress
On their own, BJP and JD(S) fall well short and Congress wins 120–125 seats. Together, with near-seamless vote transfer (97.5% of their combined vote holds), they take 133–138.
- 02
There is no anti-incumbency wave
58% of voters are satisfied with the government, and only 18% rate the previous BJP government as better. BJP has yet to build an anti-incumbency mood.
- 03
Women give Congress a big cushion
Congress wins 49% of women voters, six points more than BJP and JD(S) put together (43%). That is a lead over the combined opposition, not just over BJP.
- 04
Vokkaligas are the swing factor
Congress already holds 54% of Vokkaligas. If it draws more JD(S) voters, or Vokkaligas back Congress where JD(S) does not contest, even the alliance could struggle.
- 05
JD(S) is shrinking on its own
Its vote share has fallen from 13.29% in 2023 to 9.75%, and its projected seats from 19 to 8–12. Old Mysuru, at 21.4%, is now its only real base.
- 06
The AHINDA base holds; OBCs are a tie
Congress wins 76% of Muslims, 51% of Scheduled Castes and 48% of Scheduled Tribes. Among OBC voters it is level with BJP at 41% each.
- 07
Men and older voters are the worry, not youth
BJP leads among men (43% to 38%) and voters aged 60 and above (50% to 36%). Congress leads BJP among 18–29 year olds, 42% to 39%.
- 08
Kurubas are the firewall among backward castes
Congress is weak among Gollas (9%), Besthas (21%) and Upparas (28%). Kurubas, at 64%, remain firmly with it.
- 09
Congress edges BJP in the cities
Congress leads BJP by two points among urban voters (42.2% to 40.2%), in what has long been seen as BJP territory.
- 10
Guarantees and civic basics
Gruha Lakshmi is the most popular scheme at 42%. Roads and infrastructure (28%) and water supply (15%) top local concerns.
02 / Seat & vote projection
Congress leads on its own. A BJP–JD(S) alliance changes the result.
Vote share and modelled seats are different measures. Both are shown.
Congress majority
Vote share, 0–100% scale · Seats, modelled rangeSeat ranges are model estimates built on the survey’s vote share. They indicate the likely band of outcomes, not seat-by-seat forecasts.
| Party | Vote share | Seat estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Congress | 43.23% | 120–125 |
| BJP | 39.86% | 90–95 |
| JD(S) | 9.75% | 8–12 |
| Others | 7.16% | 0–2 |
BJP + JD(S) majority
Vote share, 0–100% scale · Seats, modelled rangeSeat ranges are model estimates built on the survey’s vote share. They indicate the likely band of outcomes, not seat-by-seat forecasts.
| Party | Vote share | Seat estimate |
|---|---|---|
| BJP + JD(S) | 48.36% | 133–138 |
| Congress | 45.37% | 84–89 |
| Others | 6.27% | 0–2 |
of the BJP and JD(S) combined vote holds when they ally (49.61% apart, 48.36% together).
is all Congress gains in a straight fight (43.23% to 45.37%).
alliance lead over Congress in Scenario 2 (48.36% to 45.37%).
In a three-way contest Congress leads BJP by 3.4 points and wins a working majority. When BJP and JD(S) join hands, almost none of their vote leaks away, and Congress cannot make up the difference on its own.
03 / How the vote has moved
Congress holds its 2023 vote. BJP is up, and JD(S) is down.
Survey vote share compared with official results published by the Election Commission of India.
| Party | 2023 AE vote | 2023 seats | 2024 GE vote | 2024 leads* | 2026 vote | 2026 seats | Swing vs 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congress | 42.88% | 135 | 45.43% | 83 | 43.23% | 120–125 | +0.3 |
| BJP | 36.00% | 66 | 46.06% | 123 | 39.86% | 90–95 | +3.9 |
| JD(S) | 13.29% | 19 | 5.60% | 18 | 9.75% | 8–12 | −3.5 |
| Others | 7.83% | 4 | 2.91% | 0 | 7.16% | 0–2 | −0.7 |
*2024 Lok Sabha figures are assembly-segment leads; BJP and JD(S) contested that election together. Swing in percentage points. Others include independents and NOTA. 2026 figures are Scenario 1. Past results: Election Commission of India.
Holds almost exactly its 2023 vote share. The seat count falls from 135 to 120–125 as BJP has regained ground since then.
BJP is 3.9 points above its 2023 showing, while JD(S) is 3.5 points below. Much of the BJP gain appears to come from the JD(S) base.
04 / Region-wise picture
Congress leads in four of six regions. The coast leans BJP; Kalyana is a dead heat.
Vote share in Scenario 1. Regional boundaries are indicative, drawn on district lines.
| Region | Congress | BJP | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kittur Karnataka | 48% | 43% | INC +5.3 |
| Kalyana Karnataka | 44% | 44% | Toss-up |
| Central Karnataka | 46% | 43% | INC +2.8 |
| Coastal Karnataka | 44% | 48% | BJP +4.7 |
| Old Mysuru | 38% | 32% | INC +5.8 |
| Bengaluru | 44% | 38% | INC +5.7 |
Regional vote shares are rounded; leads keep one decimal place. A toss-up is a lead under one point.
JD(S) remains a real force here at 21.4%, its only region above 8%. This is where the BJP–JD(S) alliance will be tested hardest.
Congress leads by 5.7 points, and smaller parties and independents take 10.7%, the highest share of any region.
05 / Who votes for whom
A clear gender divide, and an older electorate that leans BJP.
Party preference by voter group, Scenario 1.
By gender
By age group
Urban and rural
The 13-point Congress lead among women does much of the work in keeping the party ahead. It lines up with the reach of Gruha Lakshmi and Shakti, both aimed at women.
Congress leads in every group under 60, by eight points among voters aged 30 to 59. Voters aged 60 and above prefer BJP by 14 points.
06 / Government, schemes & issues
Nearly six in ten voters are satisfied with the state government.
Question wording is reproduced exactly as asked.
“How satisfied are you with the performance of the Karnataka government?”
“How does Congress governance compare with the previous BJP administration?”
Approval is broad but shallow. Only 7% are very satisfied, and men are almost evenly split. Voters who say the government is better than its predecessor outnumber those who say worse by close to three to one.
“Which is the most popular scheme run by the government?”
Have you personally benefited from any state government scheme? Yes 39% · No 55% · Not aware 6%.
“What are the issues that matter most to you in your assembly constituency?”
Gruha Lakshmi is named more than three times as often as any other scheme. Still, 55% say they have not personally benefited from a state scheme.
Civic basics dominate. Roads and water together account for 43% of responses, well ahead of jobs (5%) and prices (4%).
07 / Analyst’s notes
Three trends beneath the headline numbers.
What the regional cross-tabulations show, and why they matter for 2028.
Young voters are not settled
Congress has a ceiling with Hindu voters
Some minority support is moving to BJP
Congress enters the second half of its term with a positive rating and a clear lead in a three-way contest. Its weak point is arithmetic, not approval. If the BJP and JD(S) alliance holds and its votes transfer as cleanly as this survey suggests, the opposition starts as favourite. The contest will be decided in Old Mysuru, among women voters, and in how far Congress can widen its appeal among Hindu voters.
08 / Methodology
About this survey.
Reproduced from the published report.
Vote shares for the full sample are reported to two decimal places and breakdowns to the nearest whole number. Figures may not add up to 100 because of rounding. Unless stated otherwise, group-level results refer to Scenario 1. Results for smaller communities and sub-groups are based on fewer interviews and should be read as indicative.
This survey is a snapshot of voter opinion at the time of fieldwork. It is not a prediction of the final result of any election, which will depend on candidates, alliances and campaigns that are yet to take shape. Pragya Strategies is an independent political consultancy.
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